NOAA predicts above-normal hurricane season in 2024

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are predicting an above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.

In its outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season – which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 – NOAA is predicting an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

It is also forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

A confluence of factors – which include near record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear – which all tend to favour tropical storm formation are the basis of NOAA’s expectation for the Atlantic hurricane season to have above-normal activity.

For more on NOAA’s forecast, click here.

In the photo

NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite captured Hurricane Idalia approaching the western coast of Florida while Hurricane Franklin churned in the Atlantic Ocean at 5:01 p.m. EDT on Aug. 29, 2023.

(Photo courtesy NOAA)