IATA UPGRADES OUTLOOK

IATA has upgraded its global outlook for the airline industry to a $12.7 billion profit in 2013 on $711 billion in revenues. This is $2.1 billion better than the $10.6 billion profit projected in March of this year and an improvement on the $7.6 billion profit generated in 2012. Margins remain weak. On revenues that are expected to total $711 billion this year, the net profit margin is expected to be 1.8%. Indicative of the characteristically razor thin profits of the airline industry, even this small margin will make 2013 the third strongest year for airlines since the events of 2001. In 2007 the industry earned 2.9% net profit margin ($14.7 billion) and in 2010 airlines generated a 3.3% net profit margin ($19.2 billion). Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general and CEO, said: “This is a very tough business. The day-to-day challenges of keeping revenues ahead of costs remain monumental. Many airlines are struggling. On average airlines will earn about $4 for every passenger carried less than the cost of a sandwich in most places.” Profitability is thin, but there is a solid performance improvement story over the last seven to eight years. More efficient use of assets is the main contributor. The industry load factor is expected to average a record high of 80.3% in 2013ù6.0 percentage points above 2006 levels. Additionally, airlines have found new sources of value that have increased the contribution of ancillary revenues from 0.5% in 2007 to over 5% in 2013. Macro-economic factors have also contributed. Oil prices are expected to average $108/barrel (Brent), a little below the $111.8 average for 2012, in part due to increasing supply from North America. Meanwhile, the outlook for global economic growth has deteriorated slightly since March as the recession in Europe proves to be deeper than expected. The beneficial impact of lower fuel prices is expected to offset the adverse effect of weaker economic growth, providing a moderate boost to industry profitability. Tyler noted that: “Generating even small profits with oil prices at $108/barrel and a weak economic outlook is a major achievement. Improved performance is what’s keeping airlines in the black. Airlines are putting more people in seats. For the first time in history, the industry load factor is expected to average above 80% for the year. And with ancillary revenues topping 5%, it is clear that airlines have found new ways to add value to the travel experience and to shore-up the bottom line.” Go to http://www.iata.org for more.