Canada benefiting from Trump Slump

Mike Dunbar

Almost a year to the day since the US public voted for Donald Trump to become their next leader, there are signs travellers are turning to alternative destinations, with Canada in particular benefiting from a ‘Trump Slump.’
That’s one of the conclusions drawn from a Euromonitor International study of the world’s top 100 city destinations released at this week’s 37th edition of World Travel Market London.
The study report noted, “Since the arrival of President Trump in the White House, there has been much uncertainty about what is to come next. One of his first actions was to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and, similarly, he has threatened to pull out of NAFTA.”
Euromonitor warned, “If he follows through with his threat, the impact on inter-regional travel would be considerable, while the impact of Trump on overall inbound arrivals to US cities is being closely watched by their destination marketers.”
According to the report, New York is forecast to achieve 3.6% growth in 2017, while Miami, Los Angeles and Orlando expect increases of 3.1%, 4% and 2.7%, respectively, while Las Vegas is expected to record a drop of 0.8%.
By contrast, it revealed that Toronto is predicting an 11.2% increase in visitors to 4.45 million, while Cancun is forecast to achieve a 16% increase.
“New York is the clear leader in the Americas. To many, it might seem that the city is untouched by what is happening in Washington, but NYC Company has revised its forecasts for 2017, expecting a potential shortfall of 300,000 visitors, although this is likely to be a worst-case scenario,” the report continued.
The authors added, “Canada appears to be benefiting from anti-Trump sentiment. Justin Trudeau – young, trendy, clever, articulate, and welcoming – is seen as having the exact opposite to his US counterpart’s ‘America First’ outlook.”
And they pointed out, “Canadian cities are in a strong growth period as the low Canadian dollar ensures Canada is an affordable destination for many. Canada is also likely benefiting from some substitution effect, as its current political vision is the near opposite of its neighbour, advocating openness and stronger ties with other countries.”
WTM London senior director Simon Press stated, “A year ago, US voters went to the polls and, less than 24 hours later, shell-shocked delegates arrived at WTM to the news that Trump had done it.”
And Press concluded: “The full Trump effect on travel to the US remains to be seen, but as Euromonitor’s insight shows, some US cities are downgrading their forecasts, while neighbours Canada and Mexico look set to increase their visitor figures.”